The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
An expected withdrawal of FIIs from the market likely to weaken the rupee against the dollar.
The cooking oil national industry body -- Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has suggested immediate initiation of government to government (G2G) dialogue with Indonesia on the proposed palm oil export ban from April 28 by them as it would have an adverse repercussions in India. Indonesia, which is the world's largest producer of palm oil and meets nearly 50 per cent of the total palm oil requirement in India annually, had announced to ban exports till further notice apparently to contain edible oil prices in their domestic market. "We have suggested our government initiate dialogue with Indonesian counterparts at the highest diplomatic level on the cooking oil export ban.
The fifth meeting of Monetary Policy Committee maintained the repo rate, at which it lends to the banks, at 6.25 per cent and the reverse repo, at which it borrows, will be 6 per cent.
From the Sensex pack, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Asian Paints were the major gainers. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Tata Steel were among the major laggards.
Declining vegetable prices brought down the retail inflation to a 15-month low of 4.59 per cent in December and within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, government data showed on Tuesday. It is for the first time during the current fiscal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation print is below 6 per cent or in the RBI's target range of 2 to 6 per cent. The central bank factors in the CPI-based inflation while arriving at its monetary policy. The inflation in December 2020 came down from 6.93 per cent in November, mainly on account of 10.41 per cent decline in vegetable prices over the year-ago period.
Inflation dipped to a five-month low of 5.19 per cent in July mainly on account of decline in prices of some food articles, vegetables and protein rich items.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
The government on Wednesday asked the Reserve Bank to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026. To control the price rise, the government in 2016 gave a mandate to the RBI to keep the retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for a five-year period ending March 31, 2021.
However, worries on inadequate import and issues for the FTA pacts.
Food inflation was 7.79 per cent last month, higher than a revised 7.47 per cent in May
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday cautioned that continued uncertainty over monsoon could stoke food inflation, but expressed the hope that government policies will improve supplies in the coming months.
Zero inflation will pave way for rate cuts in the next RBI policy.
Global rating agency Moody's said India's economic growth remains weak and there is little chance of recovery next year.
Sensex may remain under pressure this week due to weak global factors.
The revised salaries of central government employees are likely to be paid from July 1, 2016.
The rapid deceleration in prices has ignited a debate in New Delhi whether Asia's third-largest economy is heading towards deflation.
The S&P BSE Midcap and S&P BSE Smallcap indices gained 0.4% and 1%, respectively
In April, RBI had projected retail inflation to be around 5 per cent.
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The rupee is set to breach the Rs 60-a-dollar mark again this week as the Street expects foreign institutional investors to continue pulling out of domestic markets. According to the street, this would result in government bond yields rising.
Senior citizens and others depending upon income from bank fixed deposit (FD) schemes will be at the receiving end with the retail inflation exceeding the interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest monetary policy review has projected retail inflation at 5.3 per cent for the current financial year. Last week, the RBI said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is now projected to be at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22 with risks evenly balanced.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
At item level, rice, coconut oil, fish fresh, poultry, milk, onion, vegetables, fruits, sugar, cigarette, electricity charges etc. are responsible for increase in the index.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
RBI's likely focus will shift back towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the banking system for reviving credit demand
Notwithstanding the recent sharp decline in the stocks of public sector companies, analysts at Jefferies remain bullish on this segment. State Bank of India, Coal India, and NTPC are their top picks in this space, they said in a recent note. The public sector undertaking (PSU) or state-owned enterprise (SOE) index, with a 70-percentage-point outperformance versus the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 over the past 12 months, comes after a decade of underperformance before 2020.
Lower crude oil prices would impact India's inflation, CAD.
Profits of India's top listed companies have been growing at a faster pace than those of their American peers, but when it comes to revenue growth, the order has reversed recently. The combined net profit of the S&P 500 companies was up 14.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended December 2023, as against 17.4 per cent profit growth logged by the BSE 500 companies in the same period. This is the second consecutive year of faster profit growth for the BSE 500 companies.
Rangarajan, who was answering questions on onion prices touching Rs 100 per kg in some cities, said the impact on inflation would not last long.
Oil, banks eneded the day in green while few in auto sector lost heavily.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
It is the six per cent target RBI is more concerned about.
Subdued prices of vegetables, cereals and dairy products pushed down retail inflation to a three-month low of 8.28 per cent in May.
'Without a poverty line, how are we to know whether poverty is the same, or it has come down or it has gone up?'
Starting August, various festivals are celebrated in different parts of the country leading to higher sales of commodities ranging from sweets, fruits and food items
Fall in both WPI and CPI inflation to pressure RBI, say analysts
Cheap data plans, affordable handsets, increasing popularity of video services and 4G networks have helped average data consumption per user in India to grow to over 11 GB a month, telecom gear maker Nokia said on Thursday. Nokia -- in its annual Mobile Broadband India Traffic Index (MBiT) report -- said the overall data traffic in India increased by 47 per cent in 2019, driven by continued 4G consumption. 4G data constitute 96 per cent of the total data traffic consumed across the country, while 3G data traffic registered its highest ever decline of 30 per cent, it added.
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